UNITED WAY IN MARIN

Introduction

Examining the larger demographic and economic changes that have occurred in the county will help United Way volunteers understand the reasons behind some of the needs that currently exist and project emerging needs. From this understanding can come a more responsive allocations process and more effective funding for the needs of Marin County's increasingly diverse population.

This overview is necessarily broad and cannot document all of the changes that have occurred in the past ten years. This chapter focuses on the key changes and trends that have shaped life in Marin County's diverse communities. The changes have been rapid and are expected to intensify in the future. They have affected employment, schools, public finance, demand for basic public services, and the organization of the nonprofit service sector. The following aspects of Marin County are explored in this chapter: population growth; race, ethnicity and national origin; age; income and poverty; and housing.

Perhaps the most important information presented here concerns the changing demographics of the County. By itself, information about the racial or ethnic background of the population may mask more important meanings. Only by combining such variables as ethnicity, education, income, language and age can a more comprehensive and useful picture emerge. This chapter attempts to show some of the deeper meaning behind racial or ethnic differences. Data presented in subsequent chapters will identify the race of those experiencing particular problems since the ethnicity of clients is a common way of reporting data. While race is an important dimension for decision-makers to keep in mind, it is only one of the many factors that influence the need for services and the ability to get them.

Another limitation of the material presented here is that the time periods covered vary. For example, the Census describes the population as of 1990 with the exception of income, which is based on 1989 earnings. In every case, this report presents the most recent information obtainable, even though it may not be strictly comparable with other sources.

Population Growth

As is the case with most demographic measures, Marin County's overall population growth masks highly significant regional differences. From 1980 to 1990 the county's population grew 3%. Communities in the four key areas of interest in this report, however, experienced substantial population increases. San Rafael remained the largest city in the county growing 8% over this period and Novato, the second largest city, matched that growth rate. Together these cities comprise 40% of Marin's total population.

* Italicized entries highlight particularly high growth areas within a particular city or region. Their growth is factored into that of the city or region to which they belong and should not be separately added.

Source: 1980 and 1990 U.S. Census.

Source: 1980 and 1990 U.S. Census.

Marin City grew 25% from 1980 to 1990, rivaling the California state average and reversing the modest 1% decline it posted the prior decade. Other high change areas not listed in Table 2.1a included Santa Venetia (+18%), Tamalpais-Homestead Valley (+13%) and Tiburon (+13%); several communities experienced significant population declines including Ross (-28%), Marinwood (-21%), Belvedere (-12%) and Fairfax (-6%).

Novato and San Rafael, the largest cities in the county, each grew 8% from 1980 to 1990. San Rafael's growth was intensely concentrated in East San Rafael (census tract 1122). The population in this community increased 55% over this period (seven times faster than city-wide growth), launching it from being the 5th largest neighborhood in the city in 1980 to being the largest in 1990. However, the population of East San Rafael reported by the 1990 U.S. Census is widely considered by public and nonprofit organizations familiar with the area to be seriously underestimated. The Canal Community Alliance, a prominent social service agency serving the area, suggests that an educated guess would place the neighborhood's population at around 10,000. Other estimates of the neighborhood's population range from the Census figure of about 8,000 up to a high of 12,000. By these estimates, then, it is conceivable that the actual growth of East San Rafael over the decade was much higher, perhaps on the order of 90-95%.

Like San Rafael, West Marin also experienced highly localized growth. While the overall population of this region increased 4% over the period, the bulk of this growth occurred in San Geronimo Valley (census tract 1130) which grew 5%, and Inverness/Olema (census tract 1322) which increased 32%. Growth in West Marin offset stable or negative growth in the rest of the region. These declines are reflected in the fact that the combined population of San Geronimo Valley and Inverness/Olema accounted for 40% of total population in West Marin in 1980; by 1990 they accounted for 46% of the entire region's population. Nicasio, Pt. Reyes and other communities in census tract 1330 in West Marin recorded -6% decreases in population.

The localized growth that has occurred in Marin County since 1980 has major implications for projected population growth over the next 20 years. According to the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), total Marin County population is expected to grow 17.5% between 1990 and 2010. Novato and San Rafael are expected to record 23.2% and 23.6% growth rates over that period, respectively. Given the rapidly growing, young adult population of East San Rafael, growth of this neighborhood could easily be highest in the county again from 1990 to 2010.

Race, Ethnicity and National Origin

Although in comparison with other Bay Area counties Marin County remains a largely "white" county, a more in-depth examination reveals significant changes in the county's racial composition between 1980 and 1990. According to Table 2.2, Whites as a percentage of total population fell from 93% in 1980 to 85% in 1990 when Hispanic is treated as a racial category. In 1990, Hispanics were the second largest racial/ethnic group in Marin County (7.8%), followed by Blacks (3.3%), Asian/Pacific Islanders (3.9%) and individuals selecting "Other" as their racial category, which in this case includes American Indians, Eskimos, Aleutians (0.5%). Table 2.2 also illustrates the significant differences in racial distribution among Marin County communities. The majority of Marin City's population is Black, and over the course of the decade, East San Rafael's majority population shifted from White to Hispanic. In fact, 58% of the county's Hispanic population resided in San Rafael and Novato.

*A racial category for Hispanics was created by deleting persons of Hispanic origin from each of the other categories and showing them separately as "Hispanic".

**Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding error.

Source: 1990 U.S. Census.

Significantly, growth in Marin County's total non-White population occurred over this decade almost exclusively in San Rafael and Novato, which are also the largest communities in the county and which had the highest growth rates over the decade. The White population in Marin actually declined about 2.5% over this period while individuals identifying themselves as Hispanic rose 93%, Blacks grew 45%, Asians/Pacific Islanders increased 44% and "Other" races grew 164%.

Again, the rate and concentration of change in certain areas of Marin County is key to understanding change in this county. While the overall Hispanic population of San Rafael increased 3-fold to over 14% of the city's population in 1990, much of that change was intensely located in East San Rafael. The racial and ethnic composition of most San Rafael neighborhoods remained largely stable over this period, except in East San Rafael where the population changed from 4.8% Spanish (the term used by that Census) to 47.4% Hispanic in 1990. This was accompanied by a decline in the percentage of whites from 77% in 1980 to 34% in 1990 (after adjusting for Hispanic as a racial category). The 2-square mile neighborhood of East San Rafael contains 21.2% of the entire county's Hispanic population.

Hispanics are also concentrated in particular areas of West Marin, with fully 75% of the Hispanic population of West Marin residing in census tracts 1330 and 1322. The first of these contains the communities of Fallon, Dillon, Tomales, Marshall, Pt. Reyes and Nicasio, which together are 14.1% Hispanic. The second of these census tracts contains Inverness and Olema, which together have a 10.9% Hispanic population. According to nonprofit agencies familiar with West Marin, Census data collection efforts were particularly inaccurate in West Marin. Rural West Marin holds many hard-to-find households and residents use post office box numbers to receive mail. Census forms, however, were mailed to street addresses. Since the post office will not deliver mail without a box number in West Marin, most Census forms were returned undelivered and the census workers had to solicit completed forms on a house-by-house basis, missing many people. The Dance Palace Community Center, a prominent social service agency serving the area, suggests that a closer estimate of West Marin Hispanics is 1,000 individuals or 7.6% of the total population.

The growth and composition of the Asian/Pacific Islander population also varied significantly across the County. For Marin County as a whole, four groups made up three-quarters of the broad Asian/Pacific Islander category. Individuals of Chinese descent were the largest group, accounting for 33% of all Asian/Pacific Islanders, followed by Japanese with 21%, Filipinos with 13% and Vietnamese with an additional 10% of this category. The other Asian racial groups under this heading were Korean, Asian Indian, Thai, Cambodian, Laotian and Hmong. Hawaiians comprised the entire Pacific Islander group which accounted for 0.3% of the total in the Asian/Pacific Islander category. In East San Rafael, however, over 57% of the Asian/Pacific Islander population was of Vietnamese descent. Chinese were the next largest group with 21.5%, followed by Filipinos with 8.1% and Asian Indians with 6.9% of the Asian/Pacific Islander population.

The racial and ethnic composition of Marin City also experienced significant changes over the decade. Most of the 25% increase discussed earlier occurred among white residents (+119%); Blacks remain the majority in this community with 57.3% of the population, but this percentage is down from 76.4% recorded in 1980.

American Indian/Eskimo/Aleut and Other/Not Specified were the two remaining categories in the 1990 Census. Both of these groups were reduced when the ethnicity of Hispanic was treated as a racial category. Together, they accounted for 3.6% of the County's population.

Age

Marin County's age distribution reflects the national trend toward an older population. Fully 16.7% of Marin's population is 60 or older and this is projected to rise to 22% by year 2000. The percent of Marin residents older than 60 is significantly greater than that of the Bay Area or California, while the percent of children and youth under age 17 is lower in Marin County than in the Bay Area, California and the U.S.

Previously mentioned problems in collecting Census data in West Marin may be particularly acute in estimating the number of elderly residents of this area. The Dance Palace Community Center, a prominent agency serving West Marin, estimated the area's 60+ population at 1,300 individuals or 21.6% of area population. This estimate dramatically changes the picture of West Marin, making the ratio of 60+ individuals to area population the highest in Marin County.

Source: 1990 U.S. Census.

Income and Poverty

Type of Households

In order to discuss income and poverty in Marin County, it is important to first understand the number and type of households in the county. Family households account for 71.6% of all households in Marin County. Married couples with children account for 20.6% of all households. Compared with other communities in California and the U.S., Marin County has a high percentage (6.6%) of single parent households with children. Of these, most single parent families with children are female-headed. Although there are many divorced women with children in Marin County with substantial incomes, the fact remains that nationally women only make about 71% of men's salaries, and Marin County is remarkable for having a large number of low-wage service jobs and very high housing and child care costs. The national problem of the concentration of poverty in female-headed households with children has been called the "feminization of poverty" and Marin County does not appear to be an exception to the trend.

Source: 1990 U.S. Census.

Income

Median income figures for Marin County seem to justify the perception of this county as a place of privilege and wealth. Median household income in Marin County ($48,544) is 15.0% higher than that of the Bay Area, 35.6% higher than in California and fully 62% higher than in the U.S. A closer look shows, however, that entire communities in this County are low income, not just by County standards, but by national standards. For example, median income for East San Rafael households ($32,286) and Marin City households ($28,620) are 23.5% and 32.2% lower, respectively, than the median income of all Bay Area households ($42,205). In addition, the median household income for West Marin masks significant local differences. According to The Dance Palace Community Center, if the higher-income Census tracts of 1310 and 1322 are removed from the median household income estimate, West Marin households have a median income of $33,058, making the median income of these households lower than any other area of Marin County except Marin City.

Source: 1990 U.S. Census and ABAG Regional Data.

Even more important is the disparity in these communities between family and non-family household income. Nationwide, family household income typically exceeds non-family household income. This relationship is also observed at the state, regional and county levels. A clear illustration of how poverty particularly impacts women and children is the fact that this relationship reverses in low income communities. In Marin City, for example, median family income ($26,767) is 23.7% lower than median income for "Other" households. In a larger context, the median family income in Marin City is 46.4% lower than median family income for the Bay Area and is 24.0% lower than median family income nationwide. East San Rafael shows the same dynamic. Median family income ($29,695) fell below non-family median income by 1990 and continues to trend downward. In broader comparison, median family income in East San Rafael is 40.6% lower than median family income for the Bay Area and is about 15.7% lower than median family income nationwide. Although, West Marin median income is the highest in the county, there is significant variation within the region. In particular, the census tracts 1330 and 1332 have quite low median household income relative to the county.

Poverty is often discussed as if it is a uniform condition of existence for individuals across communities. However, the cost of living in Marin County is among the highest in the country and national poverty indices which do not take cost of living into account grossly underestimate the amount of poverty in this county. A more accurate guideline for judging the amount of poverty in Marin County is the Chart of Upper Income Limits developed by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development which define poverty levels within the context of the cost of living in particular regions of the country.

Source: U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development,

January 1994.

HUD guidelines show that one-person households in the Bay Area earning less than $27,950 in annual income are considered low income. This means that the 22.3% households in Marin County earning under $24,999 are low or very low income. Even more startling is the fact that 44.6% of Marin City households and 38.4% of East San Rafael households are considered low or very low income by these standards.

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Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding error.

Source: 1990 U.S. Census.

Poverty and Race

As is the case nationally, poverty disproportionately affects minority households in Marin County. More than 42% of all Black households, 25% of Asian or Pacific Islander households, 37% of "Other" race households and 34% of Hispanic households are low or very low income, compared with 20% of White households that fall into that category. Although households in poverty can be found throughout Marin communities, there are significant concentrations of low income households among Latinos, Blacks and Asians in East San Rafael, Blacks in Marin City and Latinos in West Marin and Novato.

Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding error.

Source: 1990 U.S. Census.

As discussed previously, the Census data on poverty was based on national poverty guidelines which do not factor in the variation in the cost of living among regions. To provide more accurate and relevant data on the poor, however, the Census provides information on the number of individuals living below 125% and 200% of the poverty level. According to this data, 11,542 individuals "technically" live below the poverty level while more than double that figure, 32,001, live below 200% of the poverty level.

Regardless of which measure is used, Marin County's overall poverty rate is well below the regional, state and national rates. Important areas of the county do, however have very high poverty rates. Over 24% of Marin City residents live below the poverty level and 41% live below 200% of the poverty level. In East San Rafael, 20% of the population is below the poverty level while more than twice that number (45%) are below 200% of the poverty level. West Marin and Novato have fairly low poverty rates, 4% and 7% of the population respectively, but these figures rise dramatically to 14% and 21% for individuals living below 200% of the poverty level.

Source: 1990 U.S. Census.

According to the national poverty guidelines used by the U.S. Census, Marin County's poor population is slightly older than in the region, state and nation. Over 63% of the poor in Marin County are between 18 and 59 and a much higher percentage of the elderly (13%) are poor in Marin County than in the region or state. There are important geographic variations in the age of the poor, however. In Marin City over 40% of the population in poverty is between ages 0 and 17. In East San Rafael, a high percentage of the poor are children and youth (31%) but over 66% of the poor in this community are adults between the ages 18 and 59. West Marin has the largest percentage of elderly poor in the county (12.6%).

Source: 1990 U.S. Census.

Housing

Rates of homeownership in Marin County closely parallel income differences across communities. For example, 62.1% of housing is owner-occupied in Marin County as a whole, yet only 19.8% of housing in East San Rafael is owner-occupied. Marin City also has a relatively low owner-occupancy rate of 28.8%. Novato registers the lowest vacancy rate of 2.9%. While West Marin may appear to have a relative surplus of housing, in fact the 21% vacancy rate reflects high cost vacation rentals and summer homes. There is a severe shortage of rental housing that is affordable in much of West Marin.

Homeownership rates are a significant indicator of a community's stability and of the commitment of a neighborhood to preserving itself. Communities with low homeownership rates suffer relatively more crime and blight, which perpetuate their low-income status and exacerbates other social problems often found in these communities.

Source: 1990 U.S. Census.

The type of housing units also varies greatly among communities in Marin County. Overall, 60.2% of County housing units are single family detached homes while single family attached are 9.3%, multi-family are 27% and mobile homes and other housing units are 1.7% each of all housing units. In contrast, 66.7% of Marin City's housing is multi-family units followed by 22.9% single family attached homes. Novato has the broadest mix of housing types. East San Rafael 75.2% of its housing multi-family units and a very low proportion (2.5%) of single family detached homes.

Source: 1990 U.S. Census.

Overcrowding

One result of overcrowding is the stress it causes on the physical condition of housing units. Landlords are often unwilling to correct problems of wear and tear when it is believed to be caused by overcrowding. In addition, overcrowding creates stress which can be a factor in domestic violence and abuse. Children who live in overcrowded conditions are often unable to concentrate on or complete schoolwork.

Marin County overall has a relatively low person per room measure of 0.40, which contrasts with the high 0.74 measure in East San Rafael. Furthermore, the East San Rafael figures are widely considered to be low due to the inaccurate Census count of that area's population.

Source: 1990 U.S. Census.